Friday, April 29, 2016
I'm not counting the Predators out but if you are San Jose things are lining up pretty well I would think. The Ducks are gone and the Kings are gone and while there are no pushovers left I could see the Sharks going a long way this spring.
(btw while the Caps and Pens are both loaded up front did anyone watch last night's game and think that those D corps might get abused but the Sharks, Blues or Stars? Thin man, real thin.)
So 5 and 3 in the first round and of course you read my previous post and so you know I am thinking Caps, Tampa and the Blues. And for Sharks - Preds I will take the Shorks who strike me as a team that is hitting it's stride at the right time. LA is no longer LA just as Chicago is not Chicago but the way the Thorntons handled the Kings was in strike contrast to, well, say the Blues.
Just to note I am not selling the Preds short, man oh man that D, but the Sharks have a quality blue line themselves and the edge in goal and up front too I think. They will take it in six.
As for the Ducks, well LeBrun tweeted how it was a brand new WC now with the Kings, Hawks and Ducks all out and all I could think of was how one of these was not the same as the others. And yeah I figured the Ducks for the Cup this year, I mean they are a quality club for sure but one conference final in four years, well, um, yeah. LA with three in four and two Cups and the Hawks with the same. So basically the Ducks are the Coyotes (I had to look it up).
Firing Boudreau, well they aren't likely going to find a better coach out there although I don't blame Murray. His roster is locked in, this is it, and they are about to start shedding talent - Anderson and Vatanen likely out the door this summer, no? - so the window is closing. And say what you will about Boudreau and I love the guy but it's not just one game seven but multiple playoff failures. Is that on him? Well some of it has to be.
Too bad for Boudreau though he will be unemployed for what, five minutes, and too bad for Shawn Horcoff, this might be the end of the line for our old friend. But Perry, Bieksa, Kesler?
Posted by Black Dog at 7:42 PM
Tuesday, April 26, 2016
Five and two so far in the first round so all time 63 and 24 in the first round with one to come. Not bag yeah? Not bag at all.
Now on to the second round where before last year I was eighteen and eighteen before going 4 and 0 to improve to 22 and 18 all time. My theory on my second round struggles? I tend to go with my heart more than my head. Don't know what that means but it sounds good, real good, good for you and good for me.
But seriously this year, coin flips in the second round.
Anyhow before we go to our second round picks, sans Smythe for now, a few words from our sponsor, reason.
The big storyline coming out of the first round was how a bunch of boys became men, or something like that. Seriously it must be exciting for so many of the players going into the second round to find out that they have character or are good guys or whatever that narrative is, now that they have moved on. While nobody is questioning the character or leadership bonafides of Drew Doughty and Jonathan Toews (zero goals between them) I do feel terrible for the likes of Jaromir Jagr (slacker), Henrk Lundqvist (what has he ever won), Pavel Datsyuk (enigmatic Russian) and Devyn Dubnyk (egghead dogfucker).
The Sharks, Blues, Caps and Penguins have all learned what it takes to win. Until they lose. Or something. Unsure about the Ducks though. Have to wait and see on them.
Narrative, narrative, narrative. Sidney Crosby won a Stanley Cup and scored the Olympic gold medal winning goal before he needed to shave and yet for some reason his character is still called into question. Phil Kessel had cancer and barely skipped a beat and he is the worst person ever. Never mind guys like Joe Thornton or Alex Ovechkin. I guess it's who you know in the media? Or maybe the truth is that broadcasters and writers, not really understanding why one team beat another team or not wanting to ascribe results to luck (where's the story there!?!?!) fall back on simple story lines. As that moron who writes for the Toronto Sun once bemoaned (and I paraphrase) 'stats and data are ruining sportswriting, there's no more romance'.
Much easier (and dramatic) to write about how a team lost because it's star players are enigmatic lollygagging Europeans than to talk about the systems one team used to neutralize the other team and how even with that success they relied on a few lucky bounces to carry the day. Luck is not sexy.
Oh well. For now you can revel in the fact that you are a real live boy Joe Thornton. Until you're not.
NOW ONTO THE PCIKsFHHKhhangdb.
Adams - Tampa vs Islanders
Oh boy is this division the shits this year. I feel badly for Tampa who had their window open and shut in one year. Too bad. If Stralman and Stamkos were healthy they might have another go but they aren't and so they aren't going any further than the next round.
But I think they have this one. They weren't all that impressive in the first round against a mediocre Wings' team but the Isles are lucky to be here, outplayed by the Panthers they got all the bounces and all the calls and a backup goalie channelling Steve Penny and these things never last.
Now, the Isles do have the best player in the series in John Tavares who is just fantastic. He is cut from the Crosby mold entirely, through and through the superstar groomed for it from childhood, same as Toews and McDavid and Stamkos, wonderful players all, with the public personality (and maybe private too for that matter, one suspects in some cases this is true) of, well, I can't think of something that bland right now. Kale? I don't know maybe kale isn't bland or I am eating the wrong kale.
(Reminds me of my buddy's Dad. They were at a wedding and to get the couple to kiss you had to give the crowd a metaphor. Well old Wayne steps up to the mic, he's a real character I will have to tell you the fried chicken in Montague story sometime although it loses something if it's not in the original thick Island brogue, anyhow he steps up and says:
I'd give you a metaphor but I'm not that good at math
And then returns to his seat.)
Anyhow John Tavares is no Wayne MacLeod let me tell you mister.
He's a fucking great player though. Not enough in this case. Tampa isn't Tampa anymore but Bishop tips the scales. Lightning in 7.
Patrick - Caps vs Pens
Here's the Whales final right here and either team has a good shot at taking it all. The Caps were the best team in the regular season, the Pens the best team for probably the last three quarters of it?
(The Caps won 52 games in regulation. That's unreal.)
I like the Penguins up front. They are so deep - Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, Hornqvist with a good veteran supporting cast in Cullen, Kunitz, Bonino and Hagelin plus a veteran role player in Eric Fehr and some speedy youngsters as well like Rust, Sheary and Kuhnackl. Their D, well I don't love their D and their goaltending is iffy as well even if Fleury comes back.
That said they absolutely slaughtered the Rags, although I think a lot of that has to do with the Rangers whose time has passed.
As for the Caps they faced a tough foe in the Flyers and almost ran them out of the rink before Neuvirth salvaged Philly's pride.
Just like the Pens the Caps are loaded up front. Start with Ovie, Backstrom and Kuznetsov. And then you have Williams, Oshie, Johansson, Chimera (20 goals!!) and Burakovsky. The Pens have Letang and Daley bringing offence from the back end, the Caps have Carlson and Niskanen.
The Caps lower end of the roster has veterans rather than rookies - Mike Richards and Winnik and Beagle and Tom Wilson. And their D, well I like their D more than the Pens - Orlov and Alzner rbign some offence too.
To be honest when I started writing this up I was leaning Pens but now, well, now I am going with the Caps. Coin flip like I said but these teams are so evenly matched except I think Washington has the better D and they definitely have a major edge in goal regardless of who the Pens throw out there.
Caps in 7
Norris - Stars vs Blues
This may be the easiest one to call in this round especially if Seguin is not available for the Stars.
Built in the image of the Wings and Hawks the Stars are getting there but their D (their blue and team defence) can be an adventure still and their goaltending does not inspire confidence in me, that's for sure. Great forwards but the Blues just faced another great set of forwards and did a pretty good job on them.
I think the game has passed Hitchcock by, his explanation on Tarasenko just doesn't hold water, short shifts my ass, and if I were Tarasenko I would be pissed too, you know why BECAUSE I WANT TO WIN and in this case playing him was the best way to achieve that goal. When the coach starts overthinking things then you have a problem. The Blues should be able to handle the Stars as long as Hitchcock doesn't get in the way and actually plays his skill guys.
Keith and Hjalmarsson couldn't handle Tarasenko and his linemates and I certainly don't see anyone of that quality on Dallas' blue. And Elliott is the best goalie here. And the St. Louis blue is quality through and through. Blues in six, maybe five.
Posted by Black Dog at 1:56 PM
Some thoughts on the end of Chicago, for now and maybe for good.
Last year I wrote that if I were Stan Bowman I would trade Seabrook and Crawford and Sharp and load up on kids and picks and use the cap space to sign Saad and reload with younger (cheaper) players. The first two especially would bring back a nice return and by freeing up the space he could then either keep Sharp for another year or move him but under less duress.
Instead Bowman doubled down, not only keeping Seabrook and Crawford but signing the former to a monster extension that is probably going to sink the Hawks unless he can Phaneuf him this summer or next before the wheels come completely off. He also moved Stephen Johns as part of the cost of moving Sharp and then at the deadline he traded Phillipe Daneault and Marko Dano, two youngsters who were cheap and could play, for the now. And did I mention he traded Saad.
Now here's the thing. I don't blame Bowman entirely. I suspect he has job security that is pretty well ironclad but you see that kid who brought the World Series back to Boston and you realize that anyone in management can be fired, unless you are Bob Pulford. Then it actually takes a death to move you along.
Anyhow while he probably has a lot of rope like most GMs he is living in the now and last summer he probably looked at his roster and saw Marian Hossa getting older and Keith and Seabrook on the wrong side of thirty and figured that he could take a step back to take another forward or he could roll the dice and take another shot before the window closes. Hossa and Keith are two Hall of Famers and not really replaceable (although Saad sure reminded me of Hossa in style and substance).
And dismantling a team that had won two of the previous three Cups and was a bounce away from winning the third (yeah they beat the Rags in 2014) by trading Seabrook and Crawford? Well that would require massive balls. How do you sell that to the fans, to your players, to your coach, to ownership? Especially when you invariably take a step back. If you don't return to the promised land then your legacy will always be the guy who took apart a champion.
Yeah I don't blame him.
So he rolled the dice and the funny thing is the Hawks could have won the series and while I am not reneging on my preseason and preplayoff pick of Anaheim to come out of the West and win it all, the Blues are in the mix in a big way. Meaning yeah if Chicago had won they would have been in it too.
The Hawks did a good job of replacing the forwards they lost - Panarin, Anisimov, Ladd, Weise and Fleishman for Sharp, Richards, Vermette, Saad and Versteeg is pretty close to a wash. You might give a slight edge to last year's group. But they never replaced Oduya and that is what killed them. Literally. Bring in a real top four guy and they probably beat the Blues.
Now Bowman is one step back anyway and he has no Saad and Andrew Shaw is probably out the door and Stephen Johns is in Dallas and the cap is going nowhere and he has, in Brent Seabrook, a major cap issue that is going to tie his hands for years. It's 2011 for the Hawks again and we know how that worked out but they are running out of runway now.
That said, their accomplishments on the ice over the past six years bear real respect and awe really. Yes they are no 'dynasty' in the old school definition of the word but one could argue that this run is the best in hockey history. They won three cups and came within a bounce of probably winning a fourth (no doubt they beat the Rags in 2014) and they did this while all the while shipping quality out the door because they had to comply with the cap. And all this in a league where there are no soft touches come playoff time. The 70s Habs, the Isles, the Oilers - all faced creampuffs every year in the playoffs, teams they rolled over without breaking a sweat. One or two tough matchups to win and they were Cup winners. None of that for Chicago. What a great club.
Posted by Black Dog at 10:42 AM
Tuesday, April 19, 2016
Here we are in California. Washington so far is the team to cheer for if you are an Oiler fan according to our extremely nuanced rating system which uses mathematics, physics and marine biology. Science! And math!
ex Oilers - 10 - oh the ex Oiler factor is strong here. We have the wonderful Shawn Horcoff who was a tremendous two way centre who cashed in and then got blamed for cashing in. Horc is probably done after this spring and he hasn't dressed yet :( but here is hoping Boudreau gets him in there. Don't want to see Horc coming down the tunnel in full gear after the buzzer goes. Awkward!
And there is Cogliano, who the Oilers could not figure out/get through to so they gave on him. Development! Now he plays an important role on one of the best teams in the league. Well done.
And finally there is David Perron, who was one of my favourites in his brief time as an Oiler. A terrific player who called management on their 'quality' handling of certain unnamed golden boys and who got shipped out of town immediately because of it. He's no dummy!
players - 6 - this would be way higher but fuck Kesler and fuck Bieska too, I am sure if the Ducks face the Blues he will seek out Paajarvi and go after him again, he's such a tough guy. He will go after Paajarvi and Kesler will go after Fabbri.
I hope Kesler wakes up at night and realizes that one of the reasons the refs let the Bruins goon the Canucks all series long back in 2011 was because he and Burrows are such garbage. Good job you fucking weiner.
franchise - 3 - the team is named after a Disney movie which has nothing to do with real hockey from the ~ 3 minutes I have watched of it. And they just won a Cup less than a decade ago. So BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO.
ex Oilers - 0 - there are none
players - 4 - you've got a couple of classic oldsters in Mike Fisher and Barret Jackman. Kudos for still being in the league at 35! And Shea Weber is pretty cool. But on the other hand Mike Ribiero and Eric Nystrom. I feel dirty cheering for them.
franchise - 2 - I know the fans are great and it's supposed to be a great place to see a game but what can I say, I don't like any of these Bettman teams. Fold them all, I say!
ex Oilers - 3 - Matt Greene is still there and I love the guy but he is on IR and has won two Cups already
players - 2 - much like Chicago the Kings are full of players who have won at least a Cup and in many cases two. LeCavalier winning again would be pretty cool I guess. But then again there is Dustin Brown who is a poor man's Shane Doan if Doan was a diver. Fuck Dustin Brown.
franchise - 3 - much like the Hawks this would be way up the scale except they have won Cups two of the last four years. I respect the excellence (and love Darryl Sutter) but there is no suffering here..
ex Oilers - 0 - none here, too bad :(
players - 10 - seriously, where do I start. James Reimer is a prince of a man. Brent Burns has more personality in his beard than ninety percent of the players in the league. Patty Marleau is super awkward and super awesome. Joel Ward is beloved from his days on PEI, there is not an Islander who has a bad thing to say about him.
And Joe Thornton? If he wins the Cup I'm whipping out my cock.
franchise - 8 - yeah they haven't been around as long as the Blues or the Capitals but they came into the league with a bang and have really been a factor for quite a while. There isn't forty years of suffering but they have been top notch for a decade and somehow they haven't won the big one. Always very good but never the best. If they won I think it would be super cool.
And so for our final standings!!!!!
San Jose - 36
Washington - 35
Dallas - 32
Anaheim - 28
Philadelphia - 28
St. Louis Blose - 26
Florida - 24
New York Rangers - 22
New York Islanders - 22
Tampa - 18
Minnesota - 18
Pittsburgh - 16
Detroit - 16
Chicago - 15
Los Angeles - 13
Nashville - 12
So there you have it Oiler fans, if Hemsky or Horcoff were on other teams those squads would probably be who I would cheer for (and certainly if Dallas or the Ducks win I will be very excited for the ex Oilers) but I am hoping for San Jose / Washington in the final with Jumbo Joe winning by a knob.
Posted by Black Dog at 7:49 PM
OK let's get right to it, shall we?
ex-Oilers - 10 - Ales Hemsky was the best thing about the Oilers for years. He played with elan and courage, going into the corners with Regehr time and time again, getting pulverized, coming back for more. His reward was to get his character questioned time and time again by the worst hockey media in North America. A kid who came across the world to pursue his dream run down by a group whose greatest protest in a decade of Oiler failure was when the coach took away their donuts. The best was Mark Spector calling his guts into question the day before it was revealed 83 had been playing with a broken foot for six weeks as another sad sack Oilers' club chased the distant bell of a playoff spot.
players - 10 - Hemsky and Spezza, plus Vern Fiddler and his Kevin Bieska impressions? Gold!
franchise - 1 - it's not the 90s anymore and part of me thinks ah let bygones be bygones but then I think about Modano and Zubov and Hatcher and Hogue and Keane and fuck Dallas. Really.
ex-Oilers - 8 - Devan Dubnyk. Good goalie for bad team. GM questions him in media. He has a bad six weeks. He's gone. A year later he is a Vezina finallist.
Let's go Oilers!! *clap clap clap*
Dubnyk always seemed like a good kid, a bright guy and it is great to see him doing well.
And of course old pal Jarret Stoll and his two Cup rings. (!!!)
players - 4 - after Dubie, well, meh ... who cares
franchise - 1 - booooooooooooooooooo Wild On Jack Lemaire
ex-Oilers - 8 - remember our cautionary tale about Gagner and Schultz? Well Magnus Paajarvi is the other side of the coin because he wasn't a golden boy. 15 goals as a rookie and defensively aware, Paajarvi struggled the next year and was never given a shot again. And so it started. One rule for the chosen ones - slump? No problem. Mistake after mistake? No problem. Not a golden boy? Feet to the fire. Paajarvi would get a handful of shifts on the top line and then dropped back down with the plugs. And then buried in the minors. Drafted by the Wings or Hawks and he is scoring 15 goals a year on their third line. A shame because he seems like a nice kid.
And then there is Kyle Broodziak, Dick Like A Watch apparently. Still plugging away all of these years after the Oilers gave up on him for nothing, making the wrong choice, as they always do. A good honest player who came from nowhere to make a nice long career.
And there is Anders Nilsson, exhibit A about small sample sizes and goaltending.
players - 3 - you've got your ex Oilers and a real yeoman of a player in Carl Gunnarsson and a few other vets who have been around a while. And Tarasenko is a gem. The problem with the Blues is they are the rootingest tootingest bunch of trash talkers who have never won a round in the playoffs and they are a grim lot as well although playing for Ken Hitchcock would piss me off too. And there is Steve Ott. I was going to rank them a 5 even with the bullshit but then I thought about Steve Ott. Not sure if there is a guy I would less want to see win the Cup. He's garbage and the fact that Don Cherry thinks he is great is a sure sign that the old man wearing my parents' 70s' couch cover has to go. (As an aside my favourite Ott moment is when he is bragging to Claude Giroux about how good he is at faceoffs and a bemused Giroux literally has no idea who he is or what he is talking about and then schools him.)
franchise - 6 - the Blues have the longest drought going along with the Leafs and are the only one of the 67 class to remain without a championship. They haven't been to the Finals since 1970 and the only reason they were there (other than to be posterized by Bobby Orr) is because the NHL put the expansion teams in one division. *The NHL, doing stupid shit since 1917* The Blues haven't had the angst of say the Canucks or Les Sabres but that is mostly because they have been relentlessly mediocre for nearly fifty years, after all you can't say Blues without saying lose.
Remember that kids.
ex-Oilers - 3 - Eric Gustafsson was drafted by the Oilers and was discarded by them and while he was unwanted by them he was apparently good enough to play 41 games as a rookie for the defending Stanley Cup champions.
I swear that the Great Lakes are fed by rivers of Oiler fans' tears.
players - 3 - there is no Hossa or Campbell, no Handzus or Rozcival, no Timmo Kimmonen on this team. A half dozen have won three Cups, five more have won two. And six more only have one :( Plus Andrew Ladd one won with them on that 2010 all star team they iced. So unless you are a huge fan of Dutch Gretzky I have nothing. Except Hossa so yeah I am giving them a 3.
franchise - 3 - nobody but Chicago fans want Chicago to win again but I give them a 3. Better an Original Six than a non traditional market. Plus the fans suffered forever. Plus I like to see sustaimed excellence rather than a random rotation of Cup winners each year. But I know that is 3 higher than pretty well everyone else would be giving.
So here are our updated standings.
Washington - 35
Dallas - 32
Philadelphia - 28
St. Louis Blose - 26
Florida - 24
New York Rangers - 22
New York Islanders - 22
Tampa - 18
Minnesota - 18
Pittsburgh - 16
Detroit - 16
Chicago - 15
Next up last but not least the Smythe!
Posted by Black Dog at 5:14 PM
Monday, April 18, 2016
So I am in the middle of my semi annual binge of posts so enjoy because this may be it until September, it could all end any minute, as soon as my attention wanders or I run out of coke whichever comes first!
Trying to figure out who we, as fans of one of the saddest sack franchises in hockey, nay, sports history, should cheer for in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Remember kids to read the post previous to this one to find out the deep thought and scientific method being applied. First was Patrick Division. Now the Adams!
ex Oilers - 4 - I liked Teddy Purcell, I did, mostly because he showed the way to Oilers' management going forward, if they are smart they can find decent cheap players and plug them in with the kids and good things will happen. He was a good player. Plus he is from Newfoundland!
players - 9 - Shawn Thornton won the Bruins the Cup so he doesn't need me pumping his tires oh man I just can't take it. Kidding aside though you've got Jagr of course and Derek MacKenzie who played ball hockey as a toddler with his grandfather who was Mom and Dad's neighbour (RIP old Nick) and most of all you have Luongo. Funny how things change I did not want the Canucks to win but man if Luongo won it all that would be so so great.
franchise - 1 - but it is Florida and who really cares. The fans certainly don't and if it wasn't for Bettman and the taxpayers of whatever county the stadium has been built in, this Ponzi scheme would have collapsed long ago. I know there are likely a small hardcore group of fans and cheers to them but if I were folding teams these guys would be the first to go.
ex Oilers - 0 - future Oilers don't count *winks at Travis*
players - 5 - I think the world of Tavares and love Grabovski and Kulemin, would lay money on Grabovski trolling Carlyle in a post Cup interview. But they have no old grizzled guys and most of the young guys haven't really made an impression on me at all
franchise - 6 - the Islanders are so much like the Oilers that I have to sympathise. One of the greatest teams of all time and then mediocrity forever. Older fans have had it all but if you are younger than forty it's been nothing but failure.
ex Oilers - 0 - not a one to be found
players - 5 - Tampa is totally a likeable team but there aren't any guys who I think of when I think of guys who I would love to see win it all. Like a lot of these clubs they are just so young. (I wonder what the average age in the NHL is now compared to other years, it has to have dropped, no?)
franchise - 4 - I give them the low rating just because they were there a year ago and won just over a decade ago. Other than the old Chicago Stadium my favourite place to see a game. Great venue, fantastic presentation and loud smart fans
ex Oilers - 0 - no Oilers here, not even Dan Cleary!
players - 4 - the thing here is that all of their old guys have won, still it would be cool to see Datsyuk and Zetterburg do it one more time
franchise - 4 - points for being an original Six but they have just finished up one of the greatest runs in sports' history. They could wander in the wilderness for fifty years (hello LEAFS) and the karma would still not be evened up
Rankings so far (remember players and franchise count twice):
Washington - 35
Philadelphia - 28
Florida - 24
New York Rangers - 22
New York Islanders - 22
Tampa - 18
Pittsburgh - 16
Detroit - 16
Posted by Black Dog at 8:01 PM
Isn't that amazing? Talk about a garbage franchise.
Anyhow, in the spring there is a thing called 'playoff hockey' in which good hockey teams who play in the National Hockey League play for a trophy called the Stanley Cup. The fun thing about this tournament is that most of the teams are really good and don't play hockey like the Edmonton Oilers.
The bad thing is that after watching a playoff series you realize that Edmonton has miles and miles to go before they can compete. But it has only been a decade so what's the rush right?
Anyways as a neutral observer, WHO SHOULD YOU CHEER FOR IN THE STANLEY CUP HOCKEY TOURNAMENT TO WIN THE STANLEY CUP?
As a lapsed Chicago fan (nice timing weiner, then again maybe it's me :( ) I still have a soft spot in my heart for the Hawks plus my old man and the boy are Chicago fans plus Marian Hossa so I always cheer for Chicago. This year even though you can't say Blues without saying lose it looks like it may be an early exit so I may have to find someone else to pull for.
Here are my criteria and methodology *drinks* !!!
1/ Ex Oiler factor. Although according to many Oiler fans and media and management itself anyone moved from the Oilers is hot garbage interestingly enough many playoff teams have players on them who were not good enough to play for the Edmonton Oilers and yet are good enough to play on teams who venture where the Edmonton Oilers have not been for a decade. It's a real head scratcher.
For the most part I like ex Oilers because, well, mostly because like Andy Dufresne they crawled through a river of shit and survived. Look at the Oiler rosters over the past decade. Franchise is a career killer.
So for example when Anaheim won I didn't raise a glass to CFP I was pretty happy to see Todd Marchant carry the Cup around, wait I think Grant Ledyard just fell down again.
2/ Guys who have never won and the likeability factor. This can cross over with the ex Oiler deal but it's a big one.
Hilariously there still exists that school of thought out there that says if you have not won a Cup then you are, well, basically you are a loser. Now in the old days if you were a star player you basically won a Cup at some point. Then expansion came and it began to get harder and harder and now there are thirty teams and probably, what, half of them have a true superstar on them? Go from team to team and man there are a lot of great players who are probably not going to win the Stanley Cup. It's too hard now. And if they do well they will probably be like Pronger or Modano or Leetch or maybe Crosby and they will won one or maybe they will be like Bourque or Doug Weight and win one in the twilight of their careers. At least contribute though, don't be Denis Savard in a suit :(
In any case seriously though go down the list - the Sedins, Thornton, Marleau, Iginla, Doan, lol just kidding he's garbage, Ovechkin, Benn, Price, Subban, Karlsson, etc etc etc. A few of these guys are going to do it, especially with the Hawks and Kings looking like (qualifier!) they are starting to wane. But there are only so many Cups to go around and has been proven even with parity there are teams that will win multiple championships. So yeah cheer for that old guy so that dummies like Glenn Healy will recognize his character and greatness.
All kidding aside though fuck Glenn Healy and what he thinks.
Anyhow whenever the Cup gets raised and they begin to pass it around I always get happy for the oldtimers and the characters and enjoy their reaction.
3/ The franchise. Does anyone in the town give a shit? Have they won, ever? Do they have a storied history? Have they been cursed (and by cursed I mean the only type of curse, that of bad management)? Have the fans SUFFERED?
And let's make it clear, most fans know nothing of suffering. Oiler fans, we think we have it bad, but Edmonton was home to one of the greatest, if not the greatest, team in history just over twenty five years ago. And we were in the Final in 2006!
No, suffering is the Cubs, the Bills, yes the Leafs, the Sabres, the Canucks. Suffering was Chicago from 1961 to 2010 when a proud franchise was laid low by probably the worst owner in hockey history. Which is saying a lot but hell Ballard was only in charge for a couple of decades.
So yeah suffering.
BTW I have a niggling idea in my head that someone, maybe Down Goes Brown, did a post like this last year. If so, let's just say imitation is the greatest form of flattery or something like that. Sorry to steal your idea Sean, if I have, everything is jumbly now.
Here goes, we will start with the east:
ex Oiler factor - 3 - Jason Chimera was a guy who just kind of got discarded for nothing, sort of setting the stage for the decade to come. Chimera isn't a sexy guy, well maybe he is to Mrs Chimera, but he scored at a 14 goal a season pace 9 times in his career. Not bad (and talk about pulling a stat out of my ass!). Anyhow he was an Oiler for two years and it's not like they marched on Rexall when he was traded. Plus it was a long time ago. Not a biggie.
And then there is Taylor Chorney (!!!!). Chorney's claim to fame as an Oiler was 'The shift' with Jason Strudwick. Google it, ideally a version with Yakety Sax as the soundtrack. Chorney was basically Justin Schultz without the hype as a player. Except he could play a little D. Classic tweener. Happy (and surprised) that he is still in the league but wouldn't recognize him if he was eating beans in my kitchen.
players - 9 - I don't really know anyone who doesn't want to see Ovie raise that Cup. Well I know one guy and I'm not sure what his problem is. Ovie is awesome. Ovie is fun. Ovie raising the Cup would be fantastic. And I think he has a good shot at it. Other than that I'm pretty meh about the Caps. They're kind of bland. But Ovie!
franchise - 7 - The Caps have been around for over forty years and have one trip to the final, a series where they never had a shot. They were abysmal and then they were underachievers and then, well, they were there. Until Ovie came along the face of the franchise was Rod Langway right? I guess? Anyhow, boring, solid and nobody would miss them if they folded. But that's a lot of crap years so a Washington win would be pretty cool. Maybe they'd bring back Mike Marson for the banner raising!
ex Oiler factor - 6 - Well first there is Sam Gagner, who the Oilers drafted sixth overall and then immediately applied their development philosophy which basically consisted of: rushing him to the NHL, paying him a ton of cash as soon as they could, made sure he was completely entitled by never punishing his repeated errors (mostly in the defensive zone) and then selling him off for pennies on the dollar and wondering what went wrong. Gagner is a cerebral guy with skill, my guess is if he was drafted by guys who knew what they were doing he would be a solid 2C with a decade more ahead of him. Instead his career is hanging by a thread.
The Flyers also employ Chris Vandevelde who has just under 200 NHL games under his belt now, hanging in there as a PK and faceoff (I guess?) guy. And AND Colin MacDonald, who is down the depth chart and probably won't see a playoff game but who has also managed to get in over 100 games. So good for them!
And there is Nick Schultz too. I thought he was done when he was in Edmonton but like every Oiler who gets sent down the road he seemed to find his game, or what passes for his game, once he left. Funny that. Schultz was the guy they traded for because they liked the cut of his jib at the WJC or some such bullshit from a decade before. FOLKS YOU CANNOT MAKE THIS STUFF UP!!!
players - 5 - The Flyers have a few guys who seem likeable, like Voracek (read Joyce's book on the draft), Simmonds and Giroux, at least when he isn't playing grab ass with the Guarda. They don't really have any guy who you would LOVE to see win the Cup though. I won't get shivers if Giroux raises the Cup and then turns and says UMBY TAKE IT FOR A SKATE or whatever they call RJ Umberger.
franchise - 6 - the Flyers have the history and it's a long and storied one and they haven't won in a long time, though they've usually had good teams and have been back to the finals numerous times. And they are not really the team everyone used to hate (nobody is anymore, the NHL has vanillified everyone :( ) But while they haven't won in a while I just can't get too excited about them winning. They're often in the mix, they have tons of money and if they aren't as dumb as they were under Holmgren they will likely be back soon.
ex Oiler factor - 0 - good riddance Justin Schultz (although to be fair you can look at the Gagner development track and they did the exact same thing the dummies.) Wound is too fresh though, it hasn't even scabbed over yet
players - 4 - I like Sid, I really do. And I would like to see him and Malkin (and Phil!) go far just to shut up the people who talk about 'character and leadership' Put Sid on the Hawks instead of Toews and they win three Cups and probably they beat the Kings in 2014 too. And I love Toews. But other than Kessel the older guys have all won before and none of the younger guys interests me, which will alleviate some of Jenn's concerns I am sure.
franchise - 4 - I like the Pens and I would prefer them winning to a lot of these Johnny come latelys but they did win just seven years ago. And they won twice in the 90s. And they have had three of the greatest players of all time suit up for them in Lemieux, Jagr and Crosby. So ... no.
ex Oiler factor - 0 - they have none unless you include Sather and I do not
players - 6- Lundqvist winning would be great and I have a real soft spot for Domenic Moore. Other than that meh but those are two guys I would love to see win it all.
franchise - 5 - original six always counts for something but the Rangers won in '94 in dramatic fashion and they get docked for their spending habits at the turn of the century. I wouldn't hate them winning but I don't need to see them win again any time soon
This methodology is kind of flawed if I give equal value to the ex Oiler thing and so I give the players and franchise ratings a double value. When I hit ex Oilers I love the player ratings will jump anyhow. So so far:
Washington - 35
Philadelphia - 28
New York - 22
Pittsburgh - 16
The funny thing is that I want Pittsburgh to beat the Rangers but if you were to ask me which one I would prefer to win the Cup I would say New York. Isn't the brain a wonderful thing? ISN'T IT!?!?!?
Posted by Black Dog at 6:47 PM
Friday, April 15, 2016
Sure two days into it but check the tweeter if you don't trust me for my picks. I stick by what I said two days earlier despite two early 'upsets', one game in does not a series make as we know!
(That said I have comments on game one results in italics, that's the fancy slanted type of lettering.)
It's amazing how little I post here now, I have the best intentions but ... well, a decade of Oilers' shit has worn me down I guess. Plus I am busy as hell, in a good way. Just back from Spain! Will try and write a little about it. Highly recommend.
Anyhow, PLAYOFFS! 58 and 22 over a decade of predicting the first round right here. Not bad, right? A quick primer on what I look at, copied and pasted from last year, which was copied and pasted from a previous year:
First of all I do not look at how a team finished the season or at the head to head matchups. To me they don't mean a thing. Sometimes a team will finish strongly and go all the way and sometimes they will not and they will win the Cup. Every year people say 'oh they finished such and such a way' and it really doesn't matter. Same for head to head, a game in November or January doesn't tell me anything now.
The huge thing for me is depth. Obviously injuries play a huge part in the playoffs but also year after year we see that clubs with deep rosters go farther. If you can roll four lines, as Chicago and Boston did last year for example, then you're going to go a long way. For example if Toronto had dressed an actual hockey player rather than Colton Orr last spring I believe they may have survived game seven. Certainly having someone you could throw out there who could play a reliable shift would have helped. In a similar vein as the Bruins began to get banged up their depth suffered and as the series wore on against Chicago the Hawks were able to use their superior depth to push the pace. As a result they had the puck more, Chara especially was forced to defend more and by the end of the series the Bruins were done. To me I always look for teams that run four lines deep and six defencemen as well.
When I look at records the big thing for me is goal differential. A team that is even or maybe even in the red is a team that I always avoid. The real heavyweights are the clubs that have a big goal differential. This may seem like common sense but I look at that even more than I look at a club's win loss record.
I don't put a lot of stock in your usual narratives, teams that 'know how to win' and all of that. Nearly every year since the end of that stretch where the Cup was always won by the Wings, Avs, Stars or Devils has had a different starting goalie lead his team to the Cup (except for when the Wings won in '08 I think) as an example. So I don't look at the Blues and think that they can't win because Miller has never won the Cup for example or at San Jose and think that they are going to fail because they're San Jose. Intangibles like this are just a lot of noise imo.
Of course as an out I always say that anything can happen (because it can) - injuries, hot goalie, bad luck. Its hockey so sometimes that's the way it goes but generally I feel pretty good about how I make my picks.
So there you go, maybe next year I will rewrite it, some of these references are getting dated!
On to the picks:
Soupy Campbell Conference
I always tier my selections, to me you have your true contenders, the next tier of teams that could win with a nice run but are not in with the biggest boys (imo Carolina in '06 and the Oilers in '06 as well fit this), a third tier that could do it with the exact right circumstances (93 Habs) and then the also rans. To me there are five real heavyweights this year - Anaheim, LA, St Louis, Washington and Pittsburgh. If Tampa were healthy I would throw them in that mix as well. After that I see Dallas, Chicago and San Jose as good but flawed teams and then everyone else. (I can't take Tampa seriously unless Stralman and Stamkos were able to return.)
Ducks - Preds
Anaheim is one of the big boys, at the beginning of the year I had them and Tampa in the final and after a slow start man oh man have they been something. Great depth all through the lineup which to me is everything, they are probably a better team than last year's club and that first seed means they get to miss LA and SJ in R1. The Preds are not an easy out at all of course, to me they would be a pretender if I were to rank all of the teams although the reality is they probably deserve more respect. Rinne is no longer Rinne which is a big problem, too bad because their offence is no longer as pop gun as it once was. Anyhow Ducks in 6 most likely, as always the Preds draw a powerhouse in the first round, too bad for them.
Kings - Sharks
Kings (and Chicago) are basically given the benefit of the doubt always and yeah I put the Kings in that group of true contenders. They are not the team they once were - Voynov, Williams gone, Gaborik hurt - but they are still possession monsters and that does count for a lot even with their waning depth. Even in their Cup years the Kings relied on two things, especially that second Cup year. Puck luck and Quick to be superhuman. Of course that is part of their system too, throw pucks at the net constantly and good things will happen. In 2014 that is how they won G7 aganinst Chicago.(Last night was a good example, man they get a lot of breaks).
As for San Jose, well they are heartbreakers. There are so many teams that we have waited on in this year's playoffs - the Caps, the Ducks, the Pens post 2009, the Blues - but the Sharks lead the pack. We always expect them to make it over the top and they always fall short and maybe they are just the Ottawa Senators. They are still very good and they are no easy out but there is no way I can pick them over the Kings. LA in 6, maybe 7. (After 2014 no way I ever pick the Sharks but if Martinez is lost then suddenly the Kings really may be vulnerable, we will see though).
Stars - Wild
The one true mismatch of this conference. I don't rate the Stars yet, mostly due to goaltending, but man are they loaded up front and if they can get a nice quick easy out in R1 it sets them up nicely for the winner of St Louis and Chicago. Meanwhile the Wild who looked so promising just two years ago (and last year for that matter) look lost and those contracts they gave Parise and Suter look like franchise killers. Dallas in 5.
Blues - Hawks
Blues are in the true contender group for me, Chicago is not (!!!!), I just can't get past the Hawks' defence. Seabrook has stumbled this year and that contract is going to be killer unless they can unload it like the Phaneuf deal. And they miss Oduya. That said I actually like their forwards more than last year's group and Crawford has been brilliant this year so maybe I am counting them out at my own peril. And it is the Blues. The biggest bunch of talkers who have won nothing to come down the pipe ever. Still, this has to be their year, right? Right? They've added some gamebreaking skill to that D. They have to make at least the CF! Blues in 7.
Well after game one I have to wonder. I don't know if it is Hitchcock never hearing that safe is death or what but barely eking out a win over a Hawks' team missing Keith? Not confidence inspiring. And maybe you never bet against Chicago and they'll be riding high in a decade when their top pair is Keith and Rozsival.
Ok impromptu street party on so ... might have this done by round two! Back soon.
Lol, at this rate these will be out midway through round two. Anyhow on to the East!
Prince Charles Conference
Bettman wants parity and it may be this that finally drags the West back down to the East's level. Certainly LA and Chicago are no longer LA and Chicago and the remainder of the west looks flawed in some way, except for the Ducks, but out of the East I can see Washington and Pittsburgh (and Tampa if they were healthy) hanging with the big boys out west and so the times they are finally changing. Tampa was right in it with Chicago last year and I expect if the Caps or Pens win the East that the final will be an actual competition than a coronation this year. (Not to say that the Bruins, Rags, Devils and Flyers weren't competitive. They weren't like that collection of teams at the turn of the century that showed up for execution. There was just an air of inevitability in all of those series, the feeling that an eastern win would be a huge upset. Not so much any more.)
Caps - Flyers
I know the Flyers finished strong and that Steve Mason is the real deal but the Caps are the Ducks imo, so strong top to bottom, with legitimate game breakers up front, I mean Ovie is one of the all time greats, everyone is with that now right? And sure the Caps never win anything and the Pens loom in round two but the Caps finished +59 in GD after coasting for a couple of months and the Flyers were -4 even with their strong surge. So yeah it will be close, Flyers have retooled nicely even though they still have some dummy contracts to dump, but they aren't hanging with Washington. Caps in 6, maybe 5. (The loss of Couturier is just murder for the Flyers. With him out any shot they have is probably down the toilet).
Pens - Rags
The Pens have been unreal for months and the Rangers' window has closed. With McDonaugh out there is really no way I can see the Rags stopping Pittsburgh at all unless the Pens' goaltending collapses entirely. The Pens were a +42 despite a start that had people burying Crosby's career. The Rangers were +19 and without Lundqvist they are a minus and out of the playoffs. No way they can hang with Pittsburgh even with Malkin and Fleury out. Pens in 6 if Henrik steals 1. Some team is going to get a great coach next summer when Vigneault takes the fall for this roster. (Malkin apparently returning and Lundqvist being doubtful could mean this is over before next weekend).
Panthers - Isles
Florida had a really nice season and are building towards something nice if they can pay these guys, unlikely of course. Anyhow with Tampa's injury issues they have a nice road to the conference final and then who knows from there, right? Some nice veteran pickups at the deadline add to their depth up front and Luongo can still win them a game or two when they falter. As for the Isles, well they look like one of these teams that looks nice but then never really get anywhere. Okposo is a UFA and Hamonic wants out and thus a team that looked like it was about to turn the corner may never even win a series before their 'window' closes. Snow is really going to have his work cut out for him this summer. Panthers in 6.
Tampa - Wings
Stralman and Stamkos being out probably kills any chance of Tampa returning to the final and talk about showing how fragile a team's opportunity is - Stamkos is gone this summer and Drouin looks set to get out as well and suddenly a team that gave Chicago all they could handle last spring is just another team.
That said the Wings are exactly that after all of these years, just another team. What a run, basically two decades as a legitimate contender every year. Unreal. But they are done and I suspect this will be the end of their playoff streak. Even with the injuries I'm picking Tampa, the Wings were an ugly minus 13 in GD and the only reason they are in is that someone has to be in. Tampa in 6, maybe 7.
The return of the prodigal son is one storyline I never saw coming. Droun has helped and Johnson has picked up where he left off last spring. Detroit looks mediocre, which they are. This might end up being a sweep.
Posted by Black Dog at 7:44 PM